Abstract
One of the main global energy struggles in recent years has been in the Eastern Mediterranean. In cooperation with Egypt and Israel, Greece and the Greek Cypriot government (GCA) are implementing a containment strategy against Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Turkey’s response to this plan was an exclusive agreement with Libya. Turkey and Libya have signed a memorandum of national reconciliation on limiting the new continental shelf’s maritime jurisdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean - the only borders of the shared economic zone. Greece could act with other countries, and it is said that Turkey’s competence will be ratified in the face of agreements that may restrict movement. The United States and the European Union (EU) also sought to share gas with European countries against Turkey, Israel, and the GCA. This article focuses on Libya’s ongoing competition, given Libya’s oil geopolitics and challenges in the eastern Mediterranean region. This paper briefly investigates the energy geopolitics in the eastern Mediterranean and North African regions; this paper aims to conclude the diverse opinions led by various interests and points of view and suggests a solution for the ever-growing tensions in this region.
• Introduction
• Literature Review
• Geopolitics of Region
• Discussion
• Conclusion
Keywords: Petropolitical ambient, energy diplomacy, Eastern Mediterranean region, oil, natural gas, North Africa.
[1]
Barltrop R. Oil and Gas in a New Libyan Era: Conflict and Continuity 2019.https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wpcontent/uploads/2019/02/Oil-and-Gas-in-a-New-Libyan-EraConflict-and-Continuity-MEP-22.pdf
[2]
Ide T. Teaching terrorism, saving the state? Education and geopolitical imaginations of terrorism in 12 violently challenged states. Polit Geogr 2020; 77.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2019.102125]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2019.102125]
[4]
Boustros E. Situation Analysis Natural Gas in East-Mediterranean Basin. Heirot Walt University: Doha 2018.
[5]
Mason M. Hydraulic patronage: A political ecology of the Turkey-Northern Cyprus water pipeline. Polit Geogr 2020; 76.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2019.102086]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2019.102086]
[6]
Butler DTG. Turkey Signs Maritime Boundaries Deal with Libya amid Exploration Row. Reuters World News 2019.
[7]
Capasso M, Jędrzej C, Andrea D, Gabriella S. Libya Country Report, EU https://www.eu-listco.net/publications/libya-countryreport2020
[8]
Getmansky A. Sınmazdemir T, Zeitzoff T. The allure of distant war drums: Refugees, geography, and foreign policy preferences in Turkey. Polit Geogr 2019; 74.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2019.102036]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2019.102036]
[9]
Colombo S, Sartori N. Rethinking EU Energy Policies towards the Southern Mediterranean Region 2014.
[10]
Constantini I. Conflict anpeace in the Mediterranean Space: Europe’s response to the Libyancrisis. North Africa and the Making of Europe Governance, Institutions and Culture 2017; p. 287.
[11]
Costantini I. Conflict and Peace in the Mediterranean Space North Africa and the Making of Europe: Governance. Institutions and Culture 2018; p. 223.
[12]
Elghawi U, El-Osta W. The Alternative Energy Sources and Technologies Suitable for Libyan Future Energy Demand Mix. Int J Energy Technol Policy 2015; 11(1): 36-52.
[13]
Barua A, Vij S, Rahman MZ. Powering or sharing water in the Brahmaputra River basin. Int J Water Resour Dev 2018; 34(5): 829-43.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2017.1403892]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2017.1403892]
[14]
Escribano G. Convergence towards Differentiation: the Case of Mediterranean Energy Corridors. Mediterr Polit 2010; 15(2): 211-29.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2010.485048]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2010.485048]
[15]
Energy Information Administration. US Department of Energy: Libya 2012.http://www.eia.gov/countries/analysisbriefs/cabs/Libya/pdf.pdf
[16]
Energy Information Administration. Country Analysis Brief. Libya 2014.http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2014/EIA_CountryAnalysis Brief _Libya_25nov2014.pdf
[17]
Jebali E, Essid H, Khraief N. The Analysis of Energy Efficiency of the Mediterranean Countries: A Two-Stage Double Bootstrap DEA Approach. Energy 2017; 134: 991-1000.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.063]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.063]
[18]
Yanik LK. Constructing Turkish “exceptionalism” Discourses of liminality and hybridity in post-Cold war Turkish foreign policy. Polit Geogr 2011; 30(2): 80-9.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2011.01.003]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2011.01.003]
[19]
Oztaş T, Polat F. Turkey – Libya Relations: Economic and Strategic Imperatives. TRT World Research Centre 2019.
[20]
Østhagen A. Lines at Sea: Why do States Resolve their Maritime Boundary Disputes? Thesis for the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies, British Columbia University, Vancouver 2019.
[21]
Ram M. Colonial conquests and the politics of normalization: The case of the Golan Heights and Northern Cyprus. Polit Geogr 2015; 47: 21-32.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2015.01.007]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2015.01.007]
[22]
SanseveERSanseverino. Near Zero Energy Islands in the Mediterranean: Supporting Policies and Local Obstacles. Energy Policy 2014; 66: 92-602.
[23]
TRT World News Turkey. Why did Turkey Sign a Maritime Deal with Libya? 2019.https://www.trtworld.com/turkey/why-didturkey-sign-a-maritime-deal-with-libya-32064
[24]
Becke J. Varieties of expansionism: A comparative-historical approach to the study of state expansion and state contraction. Polit Geogr 2019; 72: 64-75.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2019.04.002]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2019.04.002]
[25]
Tziarras Z. The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean: Trilateral Partnerships and Regional Security, Re-imagining the Eastern Mediterranean Series: PCC Report, 3. PRIO Cyprus Centre: Nicosia 2019.
[26]
United Nations. The Law of the Sea Maritime Boundary Agreements (1970-1984). UN Office for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea: New York 1987.https://www.un.org/Depts/los/LEGISLATIONAND TREATIES/PDFFILES/publications/E.87.V.12.pdf
[27]
Kliot N, Mansfield Y. The political landscape of partition: The case of Cyprus. Polit Geogr 1997; 16(6): 495-521.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0962-6298(96)00020-0]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0962-6298(96)00020-0]
[28]
United Nations. United Nation Convention on the Law of Sea of Dec 10 1982.https://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/convention_overview_convention.htm
[29]
World Bank. The Future of the Natural Gas Market in Southeast Europe 2010.https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2486
[30]
Loizides N. Contested migration and settler politics in Cyprus. Polit Geogr 2011; 30(7): 391-401.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2011.08.004]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2011.08.004]
[31]
Tang B-J, Zhou H-L, Cao H. Selection of overseas oil and gas projects under low oil price. J Petrol Sci Eng 2017; 156: 160-6.
[32]
Bidabadi B, Peykarjou K. Simulation and forecasting for universal oil price. Journal of economical 2010; 83-117.
[33]
Corrigendum to Falling oil prices: Causes, consequences and policy implications. J Petrol Sci Eng 2018; 164: 11.
[35]
Liu D, Meng L, Wang Y. Oil price shocks and Chinese economy revisited: New evidence from SVAR model with sign restrictions. Int Rev Econ Finance 2020.
[36]
Alqahtani F, Samargandi N, Kutan AM. The influence of oil prices on the banking sector in oil-exporting economies: Is there a psychological barrier? Int Rev Financ Anal 2020; 69.
[37]
Kjærland F, Kosberg F, Misje M. Accrual earnings management in response to an oil price shock. Journal of Commodity Markets 2020.
[38]
Govinda R. Oil prices and the global economy: A general equilibrium analysis. Energy Econ 2015; 49: 669-75.
[39]
Hsu C. Technol Forecast Soc Change 2007; 6(74): 843-53.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.02.005]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.02.005]
[41]
Hsu Li-Chang. Using improved grey forecasting models to forecast the output to opto-electronics industry. Expert Syst Appl 2011; 38: 13879-85.
[42]
Hsu C, Chen C. Applications of improved grey prediction model for power demand forecasting. Energy Convers Manage 2003; 14(44): 2241-9.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0196-8904(02)00248-0]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0196-8904(02)00248-0]
[43]
Hsu C. Applying the grey prediction model to the global integration circuit industry. Technol forecast sochange 2003; 6(70): 563-74.
[44]
Chen J, Zhu X, Li H. The pass-through effects of oil price shocks on China’s inflation: A time-varying analysis. Energy Econ 2020; 86.
[45]
Wang J, Lei C, Guo M. Daily natural gas price forecasting by a weighted hybrid data-driven model. J Petrol Sci Eng 2020; 192.
[46]
Javanmard H, Faqidian SF. OPEC crude oil price forecast using gray forecasting model. Journal of Economic Modeling 2014; 8(27): 91-114.
[47]
Khashei M, Bijari M. Application hybrid ANNs and fuzzy regressive for gold price forecasting. Journal of industrial engineering 2012; 44(1): 39-47.
[48]
Akdogan K. Fundamentals versus speculation in oil market: The role of asymmetries in price adjustment? Resour Policy 2020; 67.
[49]
Kayacan E, Ulutas B, Kaynak O. Grey system theory-based model in time series prediction. Expert Syst Appl 2010; 37: 1784-9.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2009.07.064]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2009.07.064]
[51]
Liu SF, Dang YG, Fang ZG. Grey system Theory and its application. (Third ed.), Science press, Beijing 2004.
[52]
Yong - Huang Lin. Chan P, Lee Chang T. Adaptive and high-precision grey forecasting model. Expert Syst Appl 2009; 36: 9658-62.
[54]
Makian Seyed Nezam-ud-Din Mousavi Seyed Fatemeh Sadat. Economic Modeling Quarterly 2012; 6(18): 105.
[55]
Miller R G, Sorrell S R. The future of oil supply. Philosophical transactions Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences 2006.
[56]
Motunrayo O. Asymmetric effect of oil price on economic growth: Panel analysis of low-income oil-importing countries. Energy Rep 2020; 6: 1057-66.
[57]
Bildirici M, Ersin ÖÖ. Forecasting oil prices: Smooth transition and neural network augmented GARCH family models. J Petrol Sci Eng 2013; 109: 230-40.
[58]
Naderi M, Khamehchi E, Karimi B. Novel statistical forecasting models for crude oil price, gas price, and interest rate based on meta-heuristic bat algorithm. J Petrol Sci Eng 2019; 172: 13-22.
[59]
Falling oil prices: Causes, consequences and policy implications. J Petrol Sci Eng 2017; 149: 409-27.
[60]
Fonseca MN, Edson de Oliveira P. Oil price volatility: A real option valuation approach in an African oil field. J Petrol Sci Eng 2017; 150: 297-304.
[61]
Norouzi N, Fani M, Ziarani ZK. The fall of oil Age:A scenario planning approach over the last peak oil of human history by 2040. J Petrol Sci Eng 2020; 188.
[62]
Nuket Kirci Cevik. Emrah I. Cevik, Sel Dibooglu, Oil Prices, Stock Market Returns and Volatility Spillovers: Evidence from Turkey. J Policy Model 2020.
[63]
Pedram Mehdi, Shirinbakhsh Shamsullah, Abyaneh Rezaei. Investigating the asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the prices of exported goods. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research 2012; 9-143.
[65]
An S, Gao X, An H, An F, Sun Q, Liu S. Windowed volatility spillover effects among crude oil prices. Energy 2020; 200.
[66]
Saud M. Non-OPEC conventional oil: Production decline, supply outlook and key implications. J Petrol Sci Eng 2020; 189.
[67]
Shang-Lingou. Forecasting agricultural output with an improved grey forecasting model based on the genetic algorithm. Comput Electron Agric 2012; 85: 33-9.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2012.03.007]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2012.03.007]
[68]
Shahbazi K, Asgharpour H, Moharramzadeh K. The impact of petroleum products on economic growth in the country’s provinces. Journal of Economic Modeling 2012; 6(17): 44-25.
[69]
Lin S, Lin Y. Grey Information Theory and Practical Applications. Springrer-Verlag London Limited 2006.
[71]
Salah A. The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on unemployment: Evidence from Canada and the US. J Econ Asymmetries 2020; 21.
[72]
Wang Chao & Hung. Predicting tourism demand using fuzzy time series and hybrid grey theory. Tourism Management 2004; 367-7.
[75]
Wang J, Zhu S, Zhao W, Wen J. Optimal parameters estimation and input subset for grey model based on chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm. Expert Syst Appl 2011; 38: 8151-8.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2010.12.158]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2010.12.158]
[76]
Zhang X, Zhang Z, Zhou H. Oil price uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from China. Energy Econ 2020; 87.
[77]
Gong X, Chen L, Lin B. Analyzing dynamic impacts of different oil shocks on oil price. Energy Volume 198 2020; 198
[79]
Norouzi N, Norouzi M. Energy Analysis Framework II: An Introduction to the Energy Economics. Lambert academic publisher 2020.
[80]
Norouzi N. Energy Analysis Framework: An Introduction to the Energy systems. Lambert academic publisher 2020.
[81]
Abbaszadeh P, et al. Iran’s oil development scenarios by 2025. Energy Policy 2013; 56: 612-22.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.026]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.026]
[82]
Silberglitt R, Kimmel S. Energy scenarios for Southeast Asia. Technol Forecast Soc Change 2015; 101: 251-62.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.04.010]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.04.010]
[83]
Bentley R, Bentley Y. Explaining the price of oil 1971–2014: The need to use reliable data on oil discovery and to account for ‘mid-point’ peak. Energy Policy 2015; 86: 880-90.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.028]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.028]
[84]
Ebrahimi M, Ghasabani NC. Forecasting OPEC crude oil production using a variant Multicyclic Hubbert Model. J Petrol Sci Eng 2015; 133: 818-23.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2015.04.010]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2015.04.010]
[86]
Grunwald A. Energy futures: Diversity and the need for assessment. Futures 2011; 43(8): 820-30.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.024]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.024]
[87]
Schoemaker PJH. When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration. J Forecast 1991; 10(6): 549-64.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3980100602]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3980100602]
[88]
Schoemaker PJH. Multiple scenario development: Its conceptual and behavioral foundation. Strateg Manage J 1993; 14(3): 193-213.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/smj.4250140304]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/smj.4250140304]
[89]
Jetter AJ. Educating the guess: strategies, concepts, and tools for the fuzzy front end of product development Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology. PICMET 2003.
[90]
Nawaf S. Mohannad Dannoun, Abdullah Alrashed, Ahmed Z. Aly, Environmental and economic impacts of increased utilization of natural gas in the electric power generation sector: Evaluating the benefits and trade-offs of fuel switching. J Nat Gas Sci Eng 2019; 71.
[91]
Chávez-Rodríguez M, Varela D, Rodrigues F, et al. The role of L.N.G. and unconventional gas in the future natural gas markets of Argentina and Chile. J Nat Gas Sci Eng 2017; 45.
[92]
Di Lullo G, Oni AO, Gemechu E, Kumar A. Developing a greenhouse gas life cycle assessment framework for natural gas transmission pipelines. J Nat Gas Sci Eng 2020; 75.
[93]
Liu L. Monitoring and research on environmental impacts related to marine natural gas hydrates: Review and future perspective. J Nat Gas Sci Eng 2019; 65.
[94]
Mauro F. keep its role as a major natural gas exporter in South America? J Nat Gas Sci Eng 2016; 33: 717-30.
[95]
Hafezi R. Projecting plausible futures for Iranian oil and gas industries: Analyzing of historical strategies. J Nat Gas Sci Eng 2017; 39: 15-27.
[96]
Zhang M, Luis F. Variable rate and pressure integral solutions to the nonlinear gas diffusivity equation in unconventional systems. Fuel 2019; 235: 1100-13.
[97]
Lerner A, Brear MJ, Lacey JS, Gordon RL, Webley PA. Life cycle analysis (LCA) of low emission methanol and di-methyl ether (DME) derived from natural gas. Fuel 2018; 220: 871-8.
[99]
Akinola TE, Oko E, Wang M. Study of CO2 removal in natural gas process using mixture of ionic liquid and MEA through process simulation. Fuel 2019; 236: 135-46.
[100]
Ozkahraman C. Water power: the domestic and geostrategic dimensions of Turkey’s GAP Project. Conflict Secur Dev 2017; 17(5): 411-28.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14678802.2017.1371988]
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14678802.2017.1371988]
Related Books
Intelligent Technologies for Automated Electronic Systems
Modern Radio Signals Filtering Devices Methods, Technologies, & Structures
Functional Bio-based Materials for Regenerative Medicine: From Bench to Bedside (Part 2)
Mechanical Engineering Technologies and Applications
Multistage Interconnection Network Design for Engineers
Mechanical Engineering Technologies and Applications
Semi-rotary and Linear Actuators for Compressed Air Energy Storage and Energy Efficient Pneumatic Applications
Waste Valorization for Value-added Products
One-Dimensional Transient Flow in Pipelines Modelling and Simulation
Principles of Automation and Control
Article Metrics
38
3